rabble.ca Canadian federal election blog

Lets ask good questions about what happened

By Fred Wilson

Enough already with the “if only we had PR…” We don’t and won’t anytime soon. The election results are completely understandable when 37% vote for one party, and no other party is within 10 points of that. But it still didn’t produce majority government – thanks to Quebec.

It is likely too soon to really comprehend what happened yesterday.  The best we can do today is to begin asking good questions.

How do we explain the extra 3 points that the Conservatives gained in the last couple of days after the ABC campaign had them trending downward? Those gains were to some extent matched by a corresponding softening of the NDP vote (if we can rely on Nanos’ numbers) to the point where it exceeded the 2006 result by just one percent – in spite of Layton’s effective campaign and country-wide impact. Was there an invisible strategic vote that cost the NDP? It doesn’t appear so, because neither Liberals nor Greens were the beneficiaries.

Perhaps those additional NDP votes that did not materialize were another dimension of the low voter turn out. I think we need to know who didn’t vote, and how much that drop affected outcomes.

Another question we have to answer is how union households and workers voted. Why did the “orange crush” sweep Northern Ontario, but fail in British Columbia where there are similar rural and industrial forest based communities?

Lower the Conservative vote by 3 points and add that to the NDP column, and we would be having a very different conversation today about transformational possibilities for a different government. Of course that speculation, however exciting, is no more useful than complaining about the lack of PR. The useful questions are what opportunities there are now for parliamentary majorities on key issues – not just to block Harper’s agenda, but to implement some alternatives. Or must we relive the last year of the first Harper minority, with him governing as if he has a majority, and a pathetic Liberal opposition making that possible?

Good questions are the basis of good analysis, and maybe some useful answers. In the meantime, lets thank the Quebecois who blocked the majority and bought us some time to get this figured out.

This Liberal bait should be dismissed

By Fred Wilson

Check out today’s Globe and Mail election web blog “Splitting the centre -left vote” and read Scott Reid’s Liberal Party reply to the NDP campaign.   Reid says “Liberals take note: Jack Layton is trying to put an end to you…  Liberals must counter immediately. That begins by positioning themselves in the sensible centre rather than as the best of the left. They must emphasize their fiscal credentials, sharpen their critique of Mr. Harper and begin now with a blatant appeal to NDP and Green voters that the Liberals alone can keep the Conservatives from a majority.”

I hope Layton and the NDP refuse to take the bait on the Liberal tactic. Two years ago, many progressives were very critical of the NDP for focusing on the Liberals instead of the Conservatives.  No one can say that this has been the case during this campaign.  In fact, the positive trend lines for Layton and the NDP are because of his attack on the Conservatives and the presenting of alternatives that provide real contrast.

If progressives are asked to choose between a Liberal candidate and an NDP candidate, there can hardly be any choice.  It will take more than two years before the Liberal record in office loses its radio-activity for the left.  Even in opposition, the Liberals deserted the left again and again.  Remember their votes on federal anti-scab legislation, which was defeated on third reading when Stephane Dion and a majority of his caucus abandoned labour.

However this election is not about Liberals vs NDP.  To the extent that these two parties exchange seats, nothing changes on the Harper majority equation.  The task for progressives is to stop the Conservatives from winning additional seats towards a majority – and so far, there is no indication at all that the Liberals have the ability to do that.  To the contrary, the only current trend line that can stop Harper is the NDP.

Expect the Scott Reid argument to be thrown around all over the progressive movements.  It should be dismissed for what it is – a grasping attempt to turn a bad campaign around from a party that has not come to terms with its failure to represent progressive Canadians.